Compton, Every share Greenbrier lead
Golf Betting Lines
07/29/2010 - White Sulphur Springs, WV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Erik Compton, the two-time heart transplant recipient, fired a seven-under 63 Thursday to share the first-round lead with Matt Every at The Greenbrier Classic.
Playing on another sponsor's exemption and still battling stamina issues, Compton birdied nine of his last 15 holes for a career-best score on the PGA Tour.
Finishing his round after an 80-minute weather delay, Every matched his career low to tie Compton. He missed a 10-foot birdie putt on his last hole with a chance to take the lead by himself.
Jeff Overton, George McNeill and Pat Perez shared third place at six-under 64, while Brendon de Jonge, Charles Howell III, Aron Price, Matt Bettencourt and John Rollins all shot 65.
Compton's previous best score was a 67 in the first round of the Mayakoba Golf Classic in February.
"I'm not thinking about winning," he said. "I'm just thinking about one shot at a time and getting through the weekend."
Compton, of course, has had bigger things on his mind.
He was diagnosed as a child with cardiomyopathy, a disease of the heart muscle, and received his first heart transplant when he was 12 years old. The second came in 2008.
Now 30, Compton is not just chasing his first win, he's grinding his way towards earning full-time playing privileges on the PGA or Nationwide Tour after losing so much time -- about four years in his late-20s -- to illness.
"In some aspect, I look at myself as an old guy," said Compton. "I also look at myself as a young guy in a career playing golf."
Compton has tried to make the best of his playing opportunities this season, which include six previous starts on the PGA Tour. He has also played two European Tour events in the Middle East and made one start on the Nationwide Tour.
He is playing this week for the third time since the U.S. Open, where his condition was thrust into the spotlight on one of golf's biggest stages. He shot 77-81 at Pebble Beach, the first of three straight missed cuts.
Compton likes to say that he knows he's supposed to shoot bad scores, but that isn't the way he feels things have been going for him recently.
"I was getting some bad breaks, and it was hard to take advantage of plugged lies and things like that," he said.
"Some guys miss six, seven cuts in a row and then win. I know I'm a good player, and I have a lot of the adversity in front of me with the game and health. But I always feel like if I stick in there and keep trying, something eventually good is gonna happen."
He found trouble early on The Old White Course with back-to-back bogeys at the second and third holes. But Compton made nine birdies and six pars the rest of the way.
"I hit some really close shots, a couple good putts, and I guess the round just kind of developed like that," he said.
Among his birdies was a 30-foot putt at No. 5 and "it was pretty much a blur after that," Compton said. "I was taking one shot at a time."
Compton knocked his second shot at the 572-yard 17th about 18 yards short of the green, pitched to three feet and rolled in the birdie putt to move atop the leaderboard by himself.
The round was delayed for 80 minutes because of threatening weather conditions, and when the second half of the draw returned to the course, Every made his move.
He finished off a birdie at the 17th -- his eighth hole -- with a four-foot putt to move within two shots of Compton's lead.
Every followed with a 14-footer at the 18th for his third straight birdie, polishing off a 30 on the back nine that also included a 15-foot eagle putt at the par-five 12th.
He followed that with five straight pars, then rolled in a 14-foot birdie putt at the sixth hole to tie Compton at seven-under.
"I drove it great and then made some putts," said Every. "My irons were pretty standard, but I ... was in play every hole. So it was nice."
Every earned his PGA Tour card by winning the season-ending Nationwide Tour Championship last October. He denied possessing marijuana after being arrested, along with two other people, at a hotel two days before the start of John Deere Classic earlier this month.
NOTES: This is the first year of this event...Compton and Every both earned their first 18-hole leads on the PGA Tour...Every also shot a 63 in the first round of the Phoenix Open in February...Justin Leonard (67), Jim Furyk (68), Sergio Garcia (68), John Daly (69) and David Toms (70) are some of the bigger names in the field.
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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